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July 11, 2005

G8 Outcome

There were few surprises at the final outcome. On the main issues, results were pretty much as expected:

Aid. The G8 agrees a $50bn boost to aid. EU members pledge to reach a collective aid target of 0.56% of GDP by 2010, and 0.7% by 2015.

Debt. $40 billion in debt is cancelled for 18 of the world's poorest nations. The deal will save these countries about $1.5 billion annually, which they could use toward health care, education and poverty alleviation programs.

Trade. No immediate change. Tony Blair is pushing for WTO discussions in Hong Kong in December to yield an end date to agricultural subsidies. He plans to use the UK presidency of the EU in the coming six months to continue to seek movement on EU agricultural subsidies.

Climate. Almost no progress, primarily due to American resistance. Agreement had been reached that climate change was a problem, human activity contributed to it and it had to be tackled with urgency. Britain is to host a 1 November meeting on climate change, to assess progress.

Other issues:
* Mr Blair said "only people who can change Africa ultimately are the Africans". African leaders to commit to democracy and good governance as part of the deal.

* G8 commits to training 20,000 peacekeepers for Africa.

* Universal access to anti-HIV drugs in Africa by 2010.

* $3bn agreed for Palestinian Authority for investment in infrastructure.


Reaction
This G8 summit was certainly different from the norm. Never has such a summit received so much attention. The BBC observes: "It is unprecedented to reach substantive deals - such as the $50bn Africa aid boost and debt-cancellation deal - at such meetings... The summit broke new ground by bringing poverty campaigners and leaders from developing countries face to face with the world's eight most powerful leaders." On climate, the change in language from the US, if not a change in policy, offered possibilities for the future.

However, most development agencies and campaign groups were critical of the final outcome. After the huge build-up, the enormous public support, and the vocal commitment of Brown and Blair to these issues, more was hoped for. However, expectations clearly waned in the days leading up to the summit, as it became clear the deal was done prior to the Gleneagles gathering, and was going to be limited by the lack of commitment of some of the G8 leaders.

In the end it was another "good start." The question is: will it ever develop into more than that? Will the promises really be fulfilled and the aid be delivered? Will debt cancellation finally be extended to the other 44 or so countries that need it, and will the restrictive conditions be lifted? Will African countries be able to do enough in good governance and dealing with corruption to gain the investment they need? Will agricultural subsidies one day be dealt with or put off again? Will anyone ever get serious about actually doing something about climate change? And will it be too late when they do?

I hope that the MAKEPOVERTYHISTORY campaign doesn't fizzle now. I would like to see a development of the movement towards a momentum for getting trade dealt with in the EU, and at the WTO. If there is no progress towards changing injustice the very structures of international trade, in order to make it work better for the poor, then debt relief and increase in aid will accomplish little.


Other responses
* The response from MAKEPOVERTYHISTORY is here.

* The Nigerian president, Olusegun Obasanjo, thought it was a good deal. He said that Africa must respond by promoting good governance, democracy, human rights and tackling corruption.

* Jeremy Sachs and Paul Wolfowitz and Kofi Annan all sounded notes of cautious optimism.

* Tear Fund's response

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Posted by Keith at July 11, 2005 06:11 PM

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